After calculating the saturation point of smartphone in the US, Horace Dediu takes on the top five countries in Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK).
As with the previous analysis, the graph identifies the following dates:
- The Innovators’ period ended in the EU5 approximately in September 2006. (The equivalent period ended in the US in February 2007.)
- The Early Adoption period ended in the EU5 in August 2009. (US: December 2009).
- The Early Majority period ended in the EU5 in August 2012. (US: September 2012)
- Late Majority will end in the EU5 in November 2015 (US: November 2015)
Therefore if we want to suggest that saturation happens near 100% then the answer to the question in the headline is “the end of 2020.” If we want to suggest that saturation is the end of the Late Majority then the answer is “two years from now.”
One final observation: the two markets appear to be converging thus placing the analyst in the comfortable position of forecasting the adoption of smartphones for a total population of 425 million people.