IDC: Tablet Shipments Forecast to Top Total PC Shipments in the 4Q2013 and Annually by 2015
The latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker, the worldwide smart connected device market, comprised of PCs, tablets, and smartphones, is forecast to grow 27.8% year over year in 2013, slightly lower than the 30.3% growth in 2012. The growth will be driven by tablet and smartphone shipments, while the PC outlook has been lowered by 10% in 2013.
“As a result, expects tablet shipments to surpass total PC shipments (desktop plus portable PCs) in the fourth quarter of 2013 (4Q13). PCs shipments are still expected to be greater than tablet shipments for the full year, but IDC forecasts tablet shipments will surpass total PC shipments on an annual basis by the end of 2015. Smartphones will continue to ship in high volumes, surpassing 1.4 billion units in 2015 and accounting for 69% of all smart connected device shipments worldwide,” the report explains.
The report suggests that the worldwide smart connected device market will again exhibit double-digit year-over-year growth of 10.6% in 2013, but this growth will gradually slow to just 3.1% in 2017. IDC also highlights that worldwide smart connected device value is expected to be $622.4 billion in 2013, of which $423.1 billion will come from the sub-$350 smartphone and sub-$350 tablet segments collectively.
“At a time when the smartphone and tablet markets are showing early signs of saturation, the emergence of lower-priced devices will be a game-changer,” said Megha Saini, Research Analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker. “Introducing new handsets and tablet devices at cheaper price points along with special initiatives like trade-in programs from Apple and BestBuy will accelerate the upgrade cycle and expand the total addressable market overnight.”
“The device world has seen several iterations of cannibalization impacting different categories, with the last few years focused on tablets cannibalizing PC sales,” said Bob O’Donnell, Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. “Over the next 12-18 months, however, we believe the larger smartphones, commonly called ‘phablets’, will start to eat into the smaller-size tablet market, contributing to a slower growth rate for tablets.”
IDC predicts that the worldwide smart connected device space will continue to grow, with overall shipments surpassing 2 billion units by the end of 2015 with a market value of $735.1 billion.
Smart Connected Device Market by Product Category, Unit Shipments and Market Share, 2013 and 2017 (shipments in millions)
| Product Category | 2013 Unit Shipments | 2013 Market Share | 2017 Unit Shipments | 2017 Market Share | 2013—2017 Growth |
| Desktop PC | 134.4 | 8.6% | 123.11 | 5% | -8.4% |
| Portable PC | 180.9 | 11.6% | 196.6 | 8% | 8.7% |
| Tablet | 227.3 | 14.6% | 406.8 | 16.5% | 78.9% |
| Smartphone | 1,013.2 | 65.1% | 1,733.9 | 70.5% | 71.1% |
| Total | 1,556 | 100% | 2,460.5 | 100% | 58.1% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Smart Connected Device Tracker, September 11, 2013.
